Post by Sunday at midnight
[3 posts for my capstone posts of the course;
one on Somalia and its ongoing traps as an object lesson;
one review of Korea and other Asian/Middle Eastern countries in a "new imperial scramble for Africa" for agricultural plantations;
one about martial law for the Philippines, a true bottom billion country in many of Colliers' traps]
[1]
1. Mark Whitaker
2. And the conflict trap continues in Somalia
3. Somalia is on its 14th 'transitional government' and 3 members of its Cabiet were recently assassinated, despite being guarded by Collier's dream solution of an African Union of troops as a neutral third party. Other of Collier's usual suspects are here: [1] endemic regional violence (sometimes justified by a 'religious group' (that is actually quite contrary to Somali culture in what it wants to kill people for as an excuse), [2] groups already armed that justify themselves on larger religious goals instead of self-oriented regional ones, [3] multi-country neutral regional militaries, [4] model transitional governments, [5] regional warlords that refuse to talk to the 'model transitional government, [6] funding and fighters from outside the country coming in, instead of it being only a domestic squabble. [7] ongoing lack of economic security and thus without any development prospects, homogeneous or heterogeneous.
One of Collier's solutions--the regional military authority as a neutral force--is what is being attacked by the regional warlords BECAUSE it is a 'foreign force'--sort of something Collier anticipated though anticipated that 'rebels' would always lose. I'm unsure about Somalia. Still, an interesting concept in this all-African regional military for supporting transitional governments:
"African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) is an active, regional peacekeeping mission operated by the African Union with the approval of the United Nations. AMISOM is mandated to support transitional governmental structures, implement a national security plan, train the Somali security forces, and to assist in creating a secure environment for the delivery of humanitarian aid. It was created by the African Union's Peace and Security Council on 19 January 2007 with an initial six month mandate. On 21 February 2007 the United Nations Security Council approved the mission's mandate. Subsequent six-monthly renewals of AMISOM's mandate by the African Union Peace and Security Council have also been authorised..."
----------------
Suicide bomber [it is assumed, there is little evidence left...] kills three Somali cabinet ministers
At least 19 people, including three journalists, have died in blast at graduation ceremony in Mogadishu
* Xan Rice in Nairobi
* guardian.co.uk, Thursday 3 December 2009 16.18 GMT
A suicide bomber reportedly disguised as a woman killed 19 people, including three cabinet ministers, at a graduation ceremony for medical students in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, today.
The attack is the most serious yet against the UN-backed transitional federal government (TFG), which has been unable to exert any real influence on the country because of a violent ...insurgency.
The blast happened at the Shamo hotel, in one of the few areas of Mogadishu to be under nominal TFG control.
Hundreds of people had gathered to witness the graduation of mainly medical students from Benadir University, whose operation throughout the recent years of conflict has been a rare positive story from Somalia.
Five cabinet ministers, assumed to have been the main targets of the attack, were among the guests.
The health minister, Qamar Aden Ali, died at the scene along with the higher education minister, Ibrahim Hassan Addow.
The education minister, Ahmed Abdulahi Waayeel, died on the way the hospital. Several medical students and three journalists were among the 19 people the African Union peacekeeping mission said had been killed.
Dozens were injured, including the head of Benadir's medical department and the sports and tourism ministers.
Amisom, whose 5,200-strong presence in Mogadishu is the only thing keeping the government from complete collapse, said the blast had been caused by a suicide bomber.
Somalia's information minister, Dahir Mohamud Gelle, said [he assumed] the attacker was "a man who disguised himself as a woman, complete with a veil and a female's shoes". The claim could not be independently verified.
While there was no immediate claim of responsibility, suspicion fell on the hardline al-Shabaab Islamist group, which controls large parts of south and central Somalia.
The militant group has increasingly resorted to suicide bombings as a tactic over the past year or so, and has had little difficulty striking in the supposedly safest areas.
In September, suicide attackers rammed two stolen UN vehicles into the heavily fortified Amisom compound in Mogadishu before detonating their bombs, killing 17 peacekeepers and four civilians.
The Shamo hotel, one of the best-known in Mogadishu, is used by some of the few foreigners that brave the city.
Witnesses said guests at the graduation ceremony were sitting in front of a small stage inside a hall when the bomb went off.
The attack was condemned in a joint statement by the EU, the League of Arab States, Norway, the UN, the US and the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development, a regional body.
"The horrific attack is another demonstration of the extremists' complete disregard for human life," the statement said. "The fact this bombing targeted graduating medical students ‑ the future doctors of Somalia ‑ is particularly egregious."
The TFG is the 14th attempt at forming an effective government since Somalia descended into anarchy and clan warfare in 1991. It was hoped that the election of the moderate Islamist Sheikh Sharif Ahmed to the presidency in January would help end the insurgency.
But the leaders of al-Shabaab ... and of Hizbul Islam, another rebel group, have refused to negotiate with the government, which they say is a tool of the west.
On several recent occasions, insurgents have tried to assassinate Ahmed, who only three years ago was on the same side as some of the militant leaders as part of the Islamic Courts Union.
The union [which 'union'? the African Union?] wrested control of Mogadishu from various warlords before being ousted by invading Ethiopian troops.
Al-Shabaab is unpopular among most ordinary Somalis, both for the violence of its attacks and its harsh interpretations of Islam ‑ from banning pop music to stoning alleged adulterers to death ‑ which are alien to local culture.
But by exploiting clan dynamics and portraying the struggle against the government as a holy war, Islamists have been able to attract funding, as well as hundreds of recruits, from abroad.
---
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/dec/03/somali-bomb-kills-cabinet-ministers
[2]
1. Mark Whitaker
2. Korea expanding in Africa attempts have failed so far, a review
3. Interesting article from the Korea Times.
12-04-2009 18:44
Korea’s Overseas Development Backfires
Dave Durbach
Korea Times Correspondent
JOHANNESBURG ― South Korea is at the forefront of a new global trend. Unfortunately, it's nothing to be proud of: a global power struggle for food security that threatens the sovereignty of poorer nations and the livelihoods of rural communities in Africa, South East Asia and South America. [hey, how gratifying, or nauseating, your choice, to mention the three 'bottom billion' areas of the course. A good capstone article in the last week of blogposts.]
Ironically, Korea was in a similar position not so long ago - a poor population living off the land, a fragile economy at the mercy of larger powers. As everywhere else, however, newfound power has given rise to a sense of entitlement and self-importance, often at the expense of the poorest of the poor.
As one of the world's most densely populated and fastest developing nations, land in South Korea has become a scarce commodity. Farmland and forests have rapidly made way for factories, roads and new urban development over the past 15 years. As a consequence, Korea has become increasingly dependent on food imports. [Well, no, that has nothing to do with that, it has something to do with the fact that Korea under WTO policies was encouraged to abandon its national agriculture, and swamp it with global food, leading to its ongoing freefall in sustainability. Get the analysis straight first.]
Hard hit by a global financial crisis and rising international food prices, food security has become a key concern for the Lee Myung-bak administration; finding a solution is an urgent national imperative. [Protect your national farmers, perhaps?]
The government's approach to the problem appears to be yielding results, with reports in August predicting that despite shrinking farmland on the peninsula, Korea would enjoy a 10 percent increase in rice production this year, the first since 2005.
The most famous and controversial example is Madagascar, where last year Daewoo announced plans to lease 1.3 million hectares of land for 99 years.
[This led to a Madagascar coup because it is patently illegal to sell of the country for this length of time there.]
Roughly half of the country's arable land, as well as rainforests of rich and unique biodiversity, were to be converted into palm and corn monocultures, producing food for export from a country where a third of the population and 50 percent of children under 5 are malnourished, using workers imported from South Africa instead of locals. Those living on the land were never consulted or informed, despite being dependent on the land for food and income.
The controversial deal played a major part in prolonged anti-government protests on the island that resulted in over a hundred deaths and the removal of President Marc Ravalomanana [whom we saw in videos] from office.
His successor Andry Rajoelina immediately revoked the deal upon taking office, although reports by Rainforest Rescue reveal that for some time after the coup, Daewoo continued to surreptitiously hold some 218,000 hectares of appropriated land.
When the debacle finally seemed to have died down, reports from the nearby east African nation of Tanzania announced that Korea was in talks to develop 100,000 hectares for food production and processing, to the tune of between 700 and 800 billion won.
Apparently wise to the upset caused in Madagascar, this deal seemed more mutually beneficial, with the state-run Korea Rural Community Corp (KRC) reportedly offering technical assistance to local farmers, while using only half the land to produce processed goods such as cooking oil, wine and starch for export to Korea. While the KRC and Korean media were quick to proclaim the deal done and dusted, Tanzanian politicians remained reluctant to confirm that anything had been finalized. If the project does go ahead next year, the "agricultural complex" will be the largest single piece of agricultural infrastructure Korea has ever built overseas.
Africa is not the only target. Private companies and local provincial governments have made deals to procure farmland in eastern Siberia, Sulawesi in Indonesia, Mindoro in the Philippines (94,000 hectares), Cambodia and Bulgan in Mongolia. A few weeks ago, the government announced its intention to invest 30 billion won in land in Paraguay and Uruguay. Discussions with Laos, Myanmar and Senegal are also reportedly underway.
In all cases, it is proving cheaper to farm overseas than to import food. Not surprisingly, however, by paying for the land instead of the labor or product, local communities are effectively being shut out of the process.
That Korea is no longer "importing" this food that is being grown overseas implies that this land is effectively Korean. This amounts to agricultural imperialism.
As during 20th century colonialism, those with money and power are calling the shots. Local farmers and indigenous communities, meanwhile, are up in arms at being cut off from their land and critical of their leaders who are complicit in these deals, unsettling local politics in the developing countries concerned.
Korea is not alone here: other Asian powers are embarking on similar ventures. China is seeking 2 million hectares in Zambia for biofuels; Saudi Arabian investors are spending $100-million for land in Ethiopia, $45-million in Sudan and millions more for 500,000 hectares in Tanzania; Libya has secured 100,000 hectares in Mali for rice; Qatar, 40,000 hectares in Kenya; India's Yes Bank is investing $150 million to start producing wheat and rice on between 30,000 and 50,000 hectares of land by 2011.
Clearly, poor regions where communities don't have legal tenure over land are most vulnerable. Beyond Africa, the Philippines has so far been hardest hit by foreign land grabs, with Japan, China and Qatar leasing millions of hectares from the Filipino government, triggering widespread protests and an official inquiry.
What all cases have in common is that in order to maintain the development trajectories and over-consumptive lifestyles of nations either over-populated or short on natural resources, food and biofuels for the rich are being prioritized over human rights, natural ecosystems and political stability for the poor.
In the past year, farmland has become as strategic a resource as oil fields or uranium mines. It is estimated that more than 20 million hectares of farmland in Africa, Latin America and Asia have already been snapped up by foreign governments and companies. Unfortunately, local leaders cannot be trusted. In Madagascar, for example, soon after the Daewoo deal was shelved, it emerged that Malagasy officials had negotiated the lease of 465,000 hectares of farmland to Mumbai-based Varun International to grow rice for India. Unless global measures are put in place to stop this new colonialism, and if Korea backs out of agreements, other nations will simply step into the breach.
The official spin on it is that South Korea is starting to "give what they really want rather than what you want to give," by investing in agriculture rather than IT, for example. It should be clear by now, however, whose interests are really being served. For Korea, this approach may be more cost-effective than relying on imports, but the question remains: profit at what cost? Korea, or any other country for that matter, has no right to interfere in the sovereignty or stability of another country. Power brings responsibility, not entitlement.
dave.durbach@koreatimes.co.kr
---
http://koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/biz/2009/12/123_56697.html
[3]
1. Mark Whitaker
2. Philippines President declares to martial law in area...of a Presidential-ally/Governor clan presumed responsible for the killing of a candidate for office and the journalists supporting the opposition candidate.
3. This reminds me of the dynamics of the Central African Republic--I hope to watch some films on Tuesday about the Philippines' dynamics.
Philippine President Declares Martial Law
By JAMES HOOKWAY
Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo declared martial law in parts of the southern Philippines Saturday as troops detained the patriarch of a powerful political clan in connection with the massacre of 57 political rivals and journalists last month.
Philippine soldiers stand guard atop an armoured vehicle in front of the Maguindanao provincial capital of Sharif Aguak on December 5, 2009, as the government implemented martial law in the province.
Armed forces chief Gen. Victor Ibrado said clan leader Andal Ampatuan Sr. – a former governor of Maguindanao province where the killings occurred – was taken into custody for questioning Saturday morning along with at least six other family members. His son, Andal Ampatuan Jr., surrendered to authorities last week and was charged with multiple counts of murder on Tuesday, but prosecutors have said that his father – formerly a key ally of Mrs. Arroyo – remains a primary suspect in the Philippines' worst ever case of political violence.
The Ampatuan family has denied any involvement in the killings.
Mrs. Arroyo has come under heavy local and international pressure to chase down and prosecute suspects in the Nov. 23 massacre. Supporters of local vice-mayor Ismail Mangudadatu and 30 journalists were killed as they prepared to file his candidacy to run for the governorship of Maguindanao province, which has been controlled by the Ampatuan family for over a decade. Some of those killed were simply passing by the scene of the attack, investigators say.
* Bomb Hits Philippine Police Station
* Earlier: Arrest in Philippines Case
Political analysts say the killings partly stem from a long-standing government policy to nurture clan leaders and local militias to hem in Muslim and Communist insurgencies in the southern Philippines. This helped create virtually lawless zones where political killings, clan feuds and warlordism were commonplace, analysts say, worsening the security situation in a region that is already home to the ... Abu Sayyaf terrorist group and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.
The massacre also has raised fears about the risk of further violence in the run-up to national and local elections in May next year. Elections often are violent affairs in the Philippines. Some 126 people were killed during the previous polls in 2007. In 2004, 189 people were killed in election-related violence. Next year's vote could be particularly contentious because Mrs. Arroyo is stepping down because of term limits, and a new president will be elected, potentially triggering a major political realignment in this important U.S. ally.
On Saturday, Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita – Mrs. Arroyo's chief of staff – told reporters in Manila that the president had placed Maguindanao province under martial law to help restore order to the area. It is the first time martial law has been imposed in 28 years, and it effectively suspends civil rights. Mrs. Arroyo has also instructed an independent commission to dismantle militias and private armies in the region.
On Friday, hundreds of troops surrounded the Ampatuan [virtual ex-Governor] family compound in Shariff Aguak in Maguindanao, and used sniffer dogs and metal detectors to unearth ammunition buried in the grounds and seized other military equipment stored in the area. Military officials are investigating whether the ordnance was supplied by the Philippine army. Eight journalists killed in the massacre, meanwhile, were buried in a mass grave in nearby General Santos City.
Write to James Hookway at james.hookway@wsj.com
---
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125998432851178117.html?mod=WSJ_hp_us_mostpop_read
Friday, December 4, 2009
Friday, November 27, 2009
Monday, November 16, 2009
Monday, November 9, 2009
Monday, November 2, 2009
Week 10: Post your Blog Entries as Comments to my Main Post Each Week Post by Sunday at midnight
Post by Sunday at midnight
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Week 9: Post your Blog Entries as Comments to my Main Post Each Week
WITHOUT BLOG FOR MID-TERM WEEKEND.
Post by Sunday at midnight, by November 1.
1. Mark Whitaker
2. Issues of China and India in the world global recession show it is hardly all the world; AND SOMETHING about bottom billion North Korea potentially opening its minerals for a 'development strategy' (hmm....)
3. Korea barely escaped two quarters of removal of economic expansion with a slight (.1%) expansion for the second one after a huge fall in the first one. Thus 'officially' by Korean standards it avoided a recession. I have read that Korea is the one country in the OECD that has a huge portion of its GNP involved in international trade. I think it was around 25%. In boldface, note the scales of China and India below for their trade dynamics. I thought it was worth posting because these countries house a huge portion of the populations that statistically are on the bottom billion still, even though their countries are rapidly growing economically (at least in some areas--we'll talk about their regional disparities later in the course).
As for N. Korea's strategy, well, what would Terry Lynn Karl have to say about that? Or Collier?
No Recession in Chindia
Ryan Cole, Contributing Editor, Taipan Publishing Group
Monday, October 05, 2009
E-mail Print
As earnings season approaches, the debate on Wall Street is reaching a crescendo. Was the drama of last year a mere blip in a larger bull market, or is the run-up from March through September a sucker’s rally within a new, secular bear?
While the answer to this question is important for all business worldwide, there is one corner of the globe that isn’t as concerned with the conclusion. In both China and India – along with other developing markets – the recession hasn’t hurt GDP growth, despite falling exports. China’s GDP is expanding at a 7.9% clip, according to the latest numbers, and India’s GDP is right behind, at 6.1%.
“We have reached a tipping point in global economic affairs,” Stephen King, the chief economist at HSBC, told London’s The Guardian. “While there are some encouraging signs of recovery in the developed world, the real economic action is taking place elsewhere.”
According to a recent study released by the World Bank, the economic crisis of 2008 has only hastened the shift of power from west to east. No longer will America be the sole engine of growth and spending – and no longer will the dollar be the world’s de facto reserve currency.
John Hawksworth, head of macro-economics at PriceWaterhouseCoopers, spoke to The Guardian on this subject: “The dollar, the euro and the renminbi will form a basket of currencies. The world will be different. The recession has accelerated that process.”
When speaking to the paper, Robert Zoellick, head of the World Bank, said, “There will certainly be a larger role for emerging powers, there will be multipolar sources of growth, there will be more south-south trade among developing countries.”
Indeed, according to the World Bank, regardless of how soon developed countries exit the recession, the majority of economic growth for the foreseeable future will come from the developing world – and not just the famous BRIC nations. South America, Africa, and smaller Asian nations are expected to contribute nearly as much to growth.
Perhaps the greatest representation of this shift is the recent demotion of the G-7 as the world’s economic governing body, in favor of the G-20 – a body that includes emerging markets like the BRIC nations. An economic forum without China and India no longer seemed reasonable.
In a surprise move, at the summit in Pittsburgh two weeks ago, the G-20 moved close to passing new rules, expanding the voting powers of emerging markets at the International Monetary Fund.
Meanwhile, one of the biggest topics of debate in Asia isn’t when the “worldwide” recession will end, but rather which economy will emerge strongest, China or India. The argument goes, while China has outpaced India for years, the Middle Kingdom is more dependent upon exports and imports – about 80% of China’s GDP is tied up in world trade. India, by contrast, has around half of GDP coming from intranational trade, and thus is less affected by the economies of the west.
As soon as 2010, India’s growth rate may pass China.
Even with their extraordinary growth, neither India’s nor China’s economy will approach the size of America for many years to come. Both countries, however, will continue to play increasingly large roles in economic policy, and the economic health of the world.
Whether the recession ends tomorrow, in two years, or ended already – the macro-economic view shows India and China taking over as the economic engines of the world.
---
http://www.taipanpublishinggroup.com/news-1005092.html
2.
China eyes N Korea’s mineral wealth
By Christian Oliver in Seoul
Published: October 6 2009 17:33 | Last updated: October 6 2009 17:33
Wen Jiabao, China’s premier, can hail his visit to North Korea as a bit of a diplomatic coup. Now the question is whether there is an economic dividend too.
After bear hugs with Kim Jong-il and co-operation deals, Mr Wen engineered the geopolitical compromise he wanted, with the North Korean leader on Tuesday announcing he might return to international talks on dismantling his nuclear weapons programme if he gets the kudos of direct talks with the US first.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
In depth: North Korea - Jun-04
In depth: China - Jul-28
N Korea ready to resume talks - Oct-06
N Korea’s Kim meets China’s premier - Oct-05
Mr Kim’s announcement did not guarantee fresh six-party talks between Beijing, Seoul, Moscow, Tokyo, Pyongyang and Washington but restored political goodwill.
Yet if resource-hungry China hopes revived camaraderie will also grant it a large bite of North Korea’s massive untapped mineral wealth, analysts and diplomats warn, Beijing could be sorely disappointed.
North Korea’s mineral wealth is receiving close scrutiny, with South Korea’s government this week valuing reserves at $6,000bn (€4,070bn, £3,670bn). Encouraged by data on metals, Goldman Sachs last month predicted the economy of a unified Korea could rival Japan’s by 2050.
Until the 1970s North Korea was the wealthier half of the peninsula. Under communism it has supplied gold to the international bullion market. But poor technology and limited funds have in effect trapped most mineral reserves, potential investors say.
Trade with China is growing, reaching $2.8bn last year from about $2bn in 2007. But military authorities in North Korea are perceived as hostile to the changes in society and infrastructure that foreign investment could bring.
“If the North opens its mineral resources to foreign countries, that is tantamount to taking a military, social and political gamble, jeopardising their security,” said Lim Eul-chul, of Seoul’s Institute of Far Eastern Studies.
A South Korean diplomat closely involved with nuclear talks doubted Pyongyang would allow China to make big investments inside its border. “They cannot permit that kind of influence,” he said.
Although they were long communist allies, North Korea and China have a mutual mistrust, partly tied to territorial claims.
Still, limited foreign investment in the sector is not impossible. Colin McAskill, executive chairman of Koryo Asia, says he has signed a letter of intent and memorandum of understanding to invest in North Korean metals and argues his model would not interfere with sovereignty issues that concern Pyongyang.
Switzerland’s Quintermina has posted reports on its website saying it is looking to extract magnesite in North Korea.
Chinese investors are believed to have some metals interests and are also involved in coal mining.
“The Chinese companies that have tried to do business in North Korea complain a lot that the regulations change frequently and that the power supply is erratic,” said a Chinese academic in Beijing.
Additional reporting by Kang Buseong in Seoul and Geoff Dyer in Beijing
---
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7d3f6ee4-b294-11de-b7d2-00144feab49a,dwp_uuid=9511df10-6d6b-11da-a4df-0000779e2340.html
Post by Sunday at midnight, by November 1.
1. Mark Whitaker
2. Issues of China and India in the world global recession show it is hardly all the world; AND SOMETHING about bottom billion North Korea potentially opening its minerals for a 'development strategy' (hmm....)
3. Korea barely escaped two quarters of removal of economic expansion with a slight (.1%) expansion for the second one after a huge fall in the first one. Thus 'officially' by Korean standards it avoided a recession. I have read that Korea is the one country in the OECD that has a huge portion of its GNP involved in international trade. I think it was around 25%. In boldface, note the scales of China and India below for their trade dynamics. I thought it was worth posting because these countries house a huge portion of the populations that statistically are on the bottom billion still, even though their countries are rapidly growing economically (at least in some areas--we'll talk about their regional disparities later in the course).
As for N. Korea's strategy, well, what would Terry Lynn Karl have to say about that? Or Collier?
No Recession in Chindia
Ryan Cole, Contributing Editor, Taipan Publishing Group
Monday, October 05, 2009
E-mail Print
As earnings season approaches, the debate on Wall Street is reaching a crescendo. Was the drama of last year a mere blip in a larger bull market, or is the run-up from March through September a sucker’s rally within a new, secular bear?
While the answer to this question is important for all business worldwide, there is one corner of the globe that isn’t as concerned with the conclusion. In both China and India – along with other developing markets – the recession hasn’t hurt GDP growth, despite falling exports. China’s GDP is expanding at a 7.9% clip, according to the latest numbers, and India’s GDP is right behind, at 6.1%.
“We have reached a tipping point in global economic affairs,” Stephen King, the chief economist at HSBC, told London’s The Guardian. “While there are some encouraging signs of recovery in the developed world, the real economic action is taking place elsewhere.”
According to a recent study released by the World Bank, the economic crisis of 2008 has only hastened the shift of power from west to east. No longer will America be the sole engine of growth and spending – and no longer will the dollar be the world’s de facto reserve currency.
John Hawksworth, head of macro-economics at PriceWaterhouseCoopers, spoke to The Guardian on this subject: “The dollar, the euro and the renminbi will form a basket of currencies. The world will be different. The recession has accelerated that process.”
When speaking to the paper, Robert Zoellick, head of the World Bank, said, “There will certainly be a larger role for emerging powers, there will be multipolar sources of growth, there will be more south-south trade among developing countries.”
Indeed, according to the World Bank, regardless of how soon developed countries exit the recession, the majority of economic growth for the foreseeable future will come from the developing world – and not just the famous BRIC nations. South America, Africa, and smaller Asian nations are expected to contribute nearly as much to growth.
Perhaps the greatest representation of this shift is the recent demotion of the G-7 as the world’s economic governing body, in favor of the G-20 – a body that includes emerging markets like the BRIC nations. An economic forum without China and India no longer seemed reasonable.
In a surprise move, at the summit in Pittsburgh two weeks ago, the G-20 moved close to passing new rules, expanding the voting powers of emerging markets at the International Monetary Fund.
Meanwhile, one of the biggest topics of debate in Asia isn’t when the “worldwide” recession will end, but rather which economy will emerge strongest, China or India. The argument goes, while China has outpaced India for years, the Middle Kingdom is more dependent upon exports and imports – about 80% of China’s GDP is tied up in world trade. India, by contrast, has around half of GDP coming from intranational trade, and thus is less affected by the economies of the west.
As soon as 2010, India’s growth rate may pass China.
Even with their extraordinary growth, neither India’s nor China’s economy will approach the size of America for many years to come. Both countries, however, will continue to play increasingly large roles in economic policy, and the economic health of the world.
Whether the recession ends tomorrow, in two years, or ended already – the macro-economic view shows India and China taking over as the economic engines of the world.
---
http://www.taipanpublishinggroup.com/news-1005092.html
2.
China eyes N Korea’s mineral wealth
By Christian Oliver in Seoul
Published: October 6 2009 17:33 | Last updated: October 6 2009 17:33
Wen Jiabao, China’s premier, can hail his visit to North Korea as a bit of a diplomatic coup. Now the question is whether there is an economic dividend too.
After bear hugs with Kim Jong-il and co-operation deals, Mr Wen engineered the geopolitical compromise he wanted, with the North Korean leader on Tuesday announcing he might return to international talks on dismantling his nuclear weapons programme if he gets the kudos of direct talks with the US first.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
In depth: North Korea - Jun-04
In depth: China - Jul-28
N Korea ready to resume talks - Oct-06
N Korea’s Kim meets China’s premier - Oct-05
Mr Kim’s announcement did not guarantee fresh six-party talks between Beijing, Seoul, Moscow, Tokyo, Pyongyang and Washington but restored political goodwill.
Yet if resource-hungry China hopes revived camaraderie will also grant it a large bite of North Korea’s massive untapped mineral wealth, analysts and diplomats warn, Beijing could be sorely disappointed.
North Korea’s mineral wealth is receiving close scrutiny, with South Korea’s government this week valuing reserves at $6,000bn (€4,070bn, £3,670bn). Encouraged by data on metals, Goldman Sachs last month predicted the economy of a unified Korea could rival Japan’s by 2050.
Until the 1970s North Korea was the wealthier half of the peninsula. Under communism it has supplied gold to the international bullion market. But poor technology and limited funds have in effect trapped most mineral reserves, potential investors say.
Trade with China is growing, reaching $2.8bn last year from about $2bn in 2007. But military authorities in North Korea are perceived as hostile to the changes in society and infrastructure that foreign investment could bring.
“If the North opens its mineral resources to foreign countries, that is tantamount to taking a military, social and political gamble, jeopardising their security,” said Lim Eul-chul, of Seoul’s Institute of Far Eastern Studies.
A South Korean diplomat closely involved with nuclear talks doubted Pyongyang would allow China to make big investments inside its border. “They cannot permit that kind of influence,” he said.
Although they were long communist allies, North Korea and China have a mutual mistrust, partly tied to territorial claims.
Still, limited foreign investment in the sector is not impossible. Colin McAskill, executive chairman of Koryo Asia, says he has signed a letter of intent and memorandum of understanding to invest in North Korean metals and argues his model would not interfere with sovereignty issues that concern Pyongyang.
Switzerland’s Quintermina has posted reports on its website saying it is looking to extract magnesite in North Korea.
Chinese investors are believed to have some metals interests and are also involved in coal mining.
“The Chinese companies that have tried to do business in North Korea complain a lot that the regulations change frequently and that the power supply is erratic,” said a Chinese academic in Beijing.
Additional reporting by Kang Buseong in Seoul and Geoff Dyer in Beijing
---
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7d3f6ee4-b294-11de-b7d2-00144feab49a,dwp_uuid=9511df10-6d6b-11da-a4df-0000779e2340.html
Friday, October 16, 2009
Week 7: Post your Blog Entries as Comments to my Main Post Each Week
Post by Sunday at midnight
1. Mark Whitaker
2. Opinion piece by Paul Collier in New York Times a year ago: Concentrate on the Bottom Billion More than One Year
3. I was unaware that Collier has received a lot of media attention in the past year. He even appeared at the TED conferences in January 2009 and was one of five people to address a special "TED@State" (U.S. State Department presentation of policy oriented TED presenters like himself). You can find these small films of him all over the web. This was the first time I attempted to look for Collier video on the web, because I had assumed that his message would be little heeded. However, it seems I was wrong thankfully. At least people are widely aware of these causality debates he is starting from his comparative statistical modeling. However, the message published below sounds more like Milton Friedman's Shock Doctrine of military invasion to force neoliberalism and heedless anti-environmentalism as well--a powerful combination already in place. Perhaps Collier without being clearly aware is being aired more publicly to give a different ideological coating to the discredited neoliberalist-by-force model where powers that be require a fresh ideological coat of paint from Collier to continue to be legitimated. Here's an editorial of Collier from a year ago.
I think you can see echoes of the books we discussed this week by Williams, by Karl, and by Bunker/Ciccantell.
-------------------
September 22, 2008
Op-Ed Contributor
A Measure of Hope
By PAUL COLLIER
Lusaka, Zambia
THANKS to the copper boom, Zambia’s economy at last is growing. Last year, per capita gross domestic product rose by around 4 percent. The capital is busy with new construction, and traffic between here and the copper belt is so heavy, travel time has doubled to eight hours.
Still, Zambia is diverging from the rest of mankind. Its tax system has until last month been so lenient that most of the new copper profits have gone to the foreign companies that now own the mines. [A "Karlist" argument about the political frameworks that become implaneted with dependency on raw material extraction, yielding little state autonomy.] And the political and economic collapse of neighboring Zimbabwe has meant a loss of trade.
Zambians remain in the “bottom billion” of the earth’s poorest people — those whom Ban Ki-moon, the secretary general of the United Nations, declared would be the focus of development efforts for 2008. If the U.N., whose General Assembly convenes today, really rises to this challenge, how can it help the countries in the bottom billion? Presumably by more vigorous pursuit of its Millennium Development Goals, whose shaky progress toward ending poverty by 2015 is now subject to mid-term review.
The Millennium Development Goals have been a major improvement on the unfocused agenda for poverty that preceded them, but the world has changed radically since they were announced in 2000. And the assumptions on which they are based need to be rethought.
The World Bank has just raised the bean count of global poverty to 1.4 billion people, from just under a billion. It had previously overestimated the level of Chinese and Indian per capita incomes [which I had already decided to include in class], so the count now shows that the number of poor Chinese and Indians far exceeds the number of poor Africans. But this is misleading because Chinese and Indian incomes are rising far faster and more surely than African incomes.
The big difference between a poor Asian household and an equally poor African one is hope, not necessarily for the present generation of adults but for their children.
Hope makes a difference in people’s ability to tolerate poverty; parents are willing to sacrifice as long as their children have a future. Our top priority should be to provide credible hope where it has been lacking. The African countries in the bottom billion have missed out on the prolonged period of global growth that the rest of the world has experienced. The United Nations’ goal should not be to help the poor in fast-growing and middle-income countries; it should do its utmost to help the bottom billion to catch up. Anti-poverty efforts should be focused on the 60 or so countries — most of them in Africa — that are both poor and persistently slow-growing.
A further weakness with the Millennium Development Goals is that they are devoid of strategy; their only remedy is more aid. I am not hostile to aid. I think we should increase it, though given the looming recession in Europe and North America, I doubt we will. But other policies on governance, agriculture, security and trade could be used to potent effect.
What do I mean?
Well, take, for instance, the American biofuel scam (the ethanol subsidies that have diverted 30 percent of American corn away from the food supply) and the European ban on genetically modified seeds [which anyone knowledgeable supports because corruption and ignoring profound health difficulties found by many top scientists was seen! it was authorized only without or against test data in the U.S. government under Bush Senior/Reagan and under Blair in U.K.! read: Seeds of Destruction by Jeffrey Smith], imitated by Africa, have both contributed to Africa’s worsening food shortage. [Alas, I find Collier blissfully unaware of the bad long term ramifications of GMOs for private property markets in food, farmer income and development, or the ecological and human health implications.] Where is the United Nations pressure for an end to these follies? [Or the education about this to end his?]
Why, also, did the United Nations not intervene militarily when the democratic government of Mauritania, another country in the bottom billion, was overthrown by a coup last month? [Perhaps because it served some player on the Security Council itself?
Where is an alternative initiative to open international trade to poor countries now that the Doha round talks have collapsed? [Begging the question: is opening the bottom billion to the world economy the only course that leads to development for them? Even Collier argues it fails to work because of the "Asian effect" for the long interim, though here is is arguing in print for it! Second, he's being hypocritical: if he's so prodemocratic, why does he imply it is time to throw out the democratic outcome of the failed Doha round--as people democratically challenge his developmental modernistic paradigm for the poor countries? So, will he soon call for invasion to enforce global neoliberalism as well, similar to the "Shock Doctrine" imperialism of Milton Friedman? (read Naomi Klein's The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism--a huge international best seller that the "economic press" is censoring and hope will go away. It's currently in the top there books in Amazon.com categories, and this is several YEARS AFTER it has been published! )]
Above all, with a five-year-old commodities boom transferring wealth to some of the countries of the bottom billion, where are the international guidelines on taxation and investment that might help these countries convert earnings from exports of depleting minerals into productive assets like roads and schools?
I applaud Ban Ki-moon. Like Robert Zoellick, the World Bank president, Mr. Ban is offering more thoughtful leadership on development strategy than has been provided for decades. But he has been stymied by the powerful countries’ failure to rally to his call to focus on the poorest countries. No nation, not even the United States, is now sufficiently dominant for its actions to be decisive. International coordination is needed more than ever. For all its manifest limitations, the United Nations must work.
International coordination has been, indeed, the great achievement of the Millennium Development Goals [though they are symbolic coordination and will fail because of lack of implementation, even lack of funds promised according to Jeffrey Sachs whom we will read later]; all the major donor countries have bought into them. But they should now be revised so as to focus on the challenge of helping the bottom billion to converge with the rest of mankind — and on a more realistic timescale. We need not just a “Year of the Bottom Billion,” but several decades. This session of the United Nations is an appropriate moment to get started.
Paul Collier, a professor at Oxford, is the author of “The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done About It.”
---
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/22/opinion/22collier.html?
ex=1379822400&en=0bfe6d772b14ae1b&ei=5124&partner=permalink&
exprod=permalink
1. Mark Whitaker
2. Opinion piece by Paul Collier in New York Times a year ago: Concentrate on the Bottom Billion More than One Year
3. I was unaware that Collier has received a lot of media attention in the past year. He even appeared at the TED conferences in January 2009 and was one of five people to address a special "TED@State" (U.S. State Department presentation of policy oriented TED presenters like himself). You can find these small films of him all over the web. This was the first time I attempted to look for Collier video on the web, because I had assumed that his message would be little heeded. However, it seems I was wrong thankfully. At least people are widely aware of these causality debates he is starting from his comparative statistical modeling. However, the message published below sounds more like Milton Friedman's Shock Doctrine of military invasion to force neoliberalism and heedless anti-environmentalism as well--a powerful combination already in place. Perhaps Collier without being clearly aware is being aired more publicly to give a different ideological coating to the discredited neoliberalist-by-force model where powers that be require a fresh ideological coat of paint from Collier to continue to be legitimated. Here's an editorial of Collier from a year ago.
I think you can see echoes of the books we discussed this week by Williams, by Karl, and by Bunker/Ciccantell.
-------------------
September 22, 2008
Op-Ed Contributor
A Measure of Hope
By PAUL COLLIER
Lusaka, Zambia
THANKS to the copper boom, Zambia’s economy at last is growing. Last year, per capita gross domestic product rose by around 4 percent. The capital is busy with new construction, and traffic between here and the copper belt is so heavy, travel time has doubled to eight hours.
Still, Zambia is diverging from the rest of mankind. Its tax system has until last month been so lenient that most of the new copper profits have gone to the foreign companies that now own the mines. [A "Karlist" argument about the political frameworks that become implaneted with dependency on raw material extraction, yielding little state autonomy.] And the political and economic collapse of neighboring Zimbabwe has meant a loss of trade.
Zambians remain in the “bottom billion” of the earth’s poorest people — those whom Ban Ki-moon, the secretary general of the United Nations, declared would be the focus of development efforts for 2008. If the U.N., whose General Assembly convenes today, really rises to this challenge, how can it help the countries in the bottom billion? Presumably by more vigorous pursuit of its Millennium Development Goals, whose shaky progress toward ending poverty by 2015 is now subject to mid-term review.
The Millennium Development Goals have been a major improvement on the unfocused agenda for poverty that preceded them, but the world has changed radically since they were announced in 2000. And the assumptions on which they are based need to be rethought.
The World Bank has just raised the bean count of global poverty to 1.4 billion people, from just under a billion. It had previously overestimated the level of Chinese and Indian per capita incomes [which I had already decided to include in class], so the count now shows that the number of poor Chinese and Indians far exceeds the number of poor Africans. But this is misleading because Chinese and Indian incomes are rising far faster and more surely than African incomes.
The big difference between a poor Asian household and an equally poor African one is hope, not necessarily for the present generation of adults but for their children.
Hope makes a difference in people’s ability to tolerate poverty; parents are willing to sacrifice as long as their children have a future. Our top priority should be to provide credible hope where it has been lacking. The African countries in the bottom billion have missed out on the prolonged period of global growth that the rest of the world has experienced. The United Nations’ goal should not be to help the poor in fast-growing and middle-income countries; it should do its utmost to help the bottom billion to catch up. Anti-poverty efforts should be focused on the 60 or so countries — most of them in Africa — that are both poor and persistently slow-growing.
A further weakness with the Millennium Development Goals is that they are devoid of strategy; their only remedy is more aid. I am not hostile to aid. I think we should increase it, though given the looming recession in Europe and North America, I doubt we will. But other policies on governance, agriculture, security and trade could be used to potent effect.
What do I mean?
Well, take, for instance, the American biofuel scam (the ethanol subsidies that have diverted 30 percent of American corn away from the food supply) and the European ban on genetically modified seeds [which anyone knowledgeable supports because corruption and ignoring profound health difficulties found by many top scientists was seen! it was authorized only without or against test data in the U.S. government under Bush Senior/Reagan and under Blair in U.K.! read: Seeds of Destruction by Jeffrey Smith], imitated by Africa, have both contributed to Africa’s worsening food shortage. [Alas, I find Collier blissfully unaware of the bad long term ramifications of GMOs for private property markets in food, farmer income and development, or the ecological and human health implications.] Where is the United Nations pressure for an end to these follies? [Or the education about this to end his?]
Why, also, did the United Nations not intervene militarily when the democratic government of Mauritania, another country in the bottom billion, was overthrown by a coup last month? [Perhaps because it served some player on the Security Council itself?
INSET: "In Mauritania about 20% of the population live on less than US $1.25 per day [much less than North Korea]...The first fully democratic Presidential election since 1960 occurred on 11 March 2007 [even though it was the outcome of a military coup toppling a previously democratic leader. The election effected the final transfer from military to civilian rule following the [previous] military coup in 2005. This was the first time that the president had been selected in a multi-candidate election in the country's post-independence history. The election was won in a second round of voting by Abdallahi, with Daddah a close second. The head of the Presidential Guards (who had recently been fired by the incoming President) took over the president's palace and units of the army surrounded a key state building in the capital Nouakchott on 6 August 2008, a day after 48 lawmakers from the ruling party resigned. The army surrounded the state television building after the president sacked (fired) two senior officers, including the head of the presidential guards. The president, the prime minister and the minister of internal affairs were arrested. The coup was organized by General Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, former chief of staff of the Mauritanian army and head of the Presidential Guard, whom the president had just dismissed."[Here goes the third coup in four years....etc., etc.] The civilian government of Mauritania was overthrown on 6 August 2008, in a military coup d'état led by General Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz. On April 16, 2009, General Aziz resigned from the military to run for president in the July 19 elections; which he won. [this is a complete repeat of the earlier coup: resign from the military after a coup to run for election I think done by someone else three years ago.... Will it happen once more after him as well?]
["Mauritania has extensive deposits of iron ore, which account for nearly 40% of total exports. The nation's coastal waters are among the richest fishing areas in the world, but overexploitation by foreigners threatens this key source of revenue. The country's first deepwater port opened near Nouakchott in 1986. Before 2000, drought and economic mismanagement resulted in a buildup of foreign debt. In February 2000, Mauritania qualified for debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative and nearly all of its foreign debt has since been forgiven. In December 2007 donors pledged $2.1 billion at a triennial Consultative Group review. A new investment code approved in December 2001 improved the opportunities for direct foreign investment. Mauritania and the IMF agreed to a three-year Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) arrangement [i.e., what? free zone underdevelopment extraction, like was a failure in Jamaica though great for top billion investors?]in 2006 and Mauritania made satisfactory progress, but IMF and World Bank suspended their programs in Mauritania following the August 2008 coup; following the July 2009 Presidential elections, the IMF and World Bank agreed to meet with the Goverment to discuss a resumption. Oil prospects, while initially promising, have largely failed to materialize."]
Where is an alternative initiative to open international trade to poor countries now that the Doha round talks have collapsed? [Begging the question: is opening the bottom billion to the world economy the only course that leads to development for them? Even Collier argues it fails to work because of the "Asian effect" for the long interim, though here is is arguing in print for it! Second, he's being hypocritical: if he's so prodemocratic, why does he imply it is time to throw out the democratic outcome of the failed Doha round--as people democratically challenge his developmental modernistic paradigm for the poor countries? So, will he soon call for invasion to enforce global neoliberalism as well, similar to the "Shock Doctrine" imperialism of Milton Friedman? (read Naomi Klein's The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism--a huge international best seller that the "economic press" is censoring and hope will go away. It's currently in the top there books in Amazon.com categories, and this is several YEARS AFTER it has been published! )]
Above all, with a five-year-old commodities boom transferring wealth to some of the countries of the bottom billion, where are the international guidelines on taxation and investment that might help these countries convert earnings from exports of depleting minerals into productive assets like roads and schools?
I applaud Ban Ki-moon. Like Robert Zoellick, the World Bank president, Mr. Ban is offering more thoughtful leadership on development strategy than has been provided for decades. But he has been stymied by the powerful countries’ failure to rally to his call to focus on the poorest countries. No nation, not even the United States, is now sufficiently dominant for its actions to be decisive. International coordination is needed more than ever. For all its manifest limitations, the United Nations must work.
International coordination has been, indeed, the great achievement of the Millennium Development Goals [though they are symbolic coordination and will fail because of lack of implementation, even lack of funds promised according to Jeffrey Sachs whom we will read later]; all the major donor countries have bought into them. But they should now be revised so as to focus on the challenge of helping the bottom billion to converge with the rest of mankind — and on a more realistic timescale. We need not just a “Year of the Bottom Billion,” but several decades. This session of the United Nations is an appropriate moment to get started.
Paul Collier, a professor at Oxford, is the author of “The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done About It.”
---
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/22/opinion/22collier.html?
ex=1379822400&en=0bfe6d772b14ae1b&ei=5124&partner=permalink&
exprod=permalink
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